Narrative Economics

Narrative Economics pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2025

Robert J. Shiller
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具体描述

From Nobel Prizeâ€"winning economist and New York Times bestselling author Robert Shiller, a new way to think about how popular stories help drive economic events

In a world in which internet troll farms attempt to influence foreign elections, can we afford to ignore the power of viral stories to affect economies? In this groundbreaking book, Nobel Prizeâ€"winning economist and New York Times bestselling author Robert Shiller offers a new way to think about the economy and economic change. Using a rich array of historical examples and data, Shiller argues that studying popular stories that affect individual and collective economic behaviorâ€"what he calls "narrative economics"â€"has the potential to vastly improve our ability to predict, prepare for, and lessen the damage of financial crises, recessions, depressions, and other major economic events.

Spread through the public in the form of popular stories, ideas can go viral and move marketsâ€"whether it's the belief that tech stocks can only go up, that housing prices never fall, or that some firms are too big to fail. Whether true or false, stories like theseâ€"transmitted by word of mouth, by the news media, and increasingly by social mediaâ€"drive the economy by driving our decisions about how and where to invest, how much to spend and save, and more. But despite the obvious importance of such stories, most economists have paid little attention to them. Narrative Economics sets out to change that by laying the foundation for a way of understanding how stories help propel economic events that have had led to war, mass unemployment, and increased inequality.

The stories people tellâ€"about economic confidence or panic, housing booms, the American dream, or Bitcoinâ€"affect economic outcomes. Narrative Economics explains how we can begin to take these stories seriously. The result may be Robert Shiller's most important book to date.

用户评价

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从传染病学和心理学的角度去分析narrative对于经济的影响,其中提到的传染病学理论去研究新闻(narrative)在公众里的传播、变异和影响,非常贴切。里面提到的几个perennial narrative(反复出现的narrative)可以理解为几种反复出现不断变异的病毒,每次得到合适的土壤就会卷土重来。这对于券商宏观分析师来说其实是很有用的,希望有一天可以用微博热搜或者微信公众号文章阅读出一个"最受关注的narrative指数"

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##好像什么都说了,又好像什么都没说。。。

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##速读看大方向,ngram造福人类;感觉也很适合精读,把提到的几个经典叙事里的案例逐个深入了解一下。最后一章展示的研究方向/地图(画的大饼)甚至让人有些热血沸腾蠢蠢欲动

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##good stories badly assembled together

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##想法其实挺简单,在传统经济理论中加入行为学因素。是个应景的理论,因为随着科技发展,消息的传播越来越快。一句话概括全书: thought viruses are responsible for many of the changes we observe in economic activities, and it's gonna come again, again and again. 这本书写得不咋的,但充分激发了我学习病理学等自然科学的热情。感觉未来传统学科的第二春也只能来自跨学科交融的突变(mutation)了。以及,得流量者得天下啊。

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##good stories badly assembled together

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##好像什么都说了,又好像什么都没说。。。

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##很啰嗦,叙事起的作用和索罗斯说的reflexivity相通,在社会中,人们的主观认识影响客观现实并构成客观现实的一部分,主观和客观相互作用,相互反馈,影响社会。

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##传统的经济学建立在一个假设前提的基础上: 所有的人都是理性的,然而现实并非如此。越来越多的经济学家在关注其他因素对经济的影响。叙事对经济一定是有影响的,不过要做叙事经济学的研究有很多还未解决的问题,我能想到的作者在书里最后一部分都提到了,比如很难证明和量化叙事和经济变化之间的因果或相关性,还没有找到非常科学的方法论,和同一经济问题相关的叙事纷繁复杂,有相似的有矛盾的,数据收集也是问题。作者在第三部分的九个章节里列举的几个典型叙事对经济的影响也是基于上述原因,欠缺了些说服力。不过提出这个概念是很有意义的。

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