具体描述
Geopolitical Alpha – An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights.
Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses:
What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade
Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk
How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns
Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.
用户评价
##方法论里没有新东西，分析的关键在于找出最关键的影响因素，即书中的fulcrum constraint。案例写得清晰有趣，但做出类似分析，找出有意义的constraint需要反复练习（也不一定能像作者这样成功），本来想打四????，但是对疫情后政策的预判都对了就再加一颗吧。
评分##方法论里没有新东西，分析的关键在于找出最关键的影响因素，即书中的fulcrum constraint。案例写得清晰有趣，但做出类似分析，找出有意义的constraint需要反复练习（也不一定能像作者这样成功），本来想打四????，但是对疫情后政策的预判都对了就再加一颗吧。
评分##所以还是选择跟随吧
评分##挺好的宏观政经怯魅读物。Preferences are optional and subject to constraints. Constraints are neither optional nor subject to preferences. 理解每个政治家决策时面临的constraints比起找一堆ex官员打听各种内幕消息要重要的多（英国脱欧 / 希腊留欧 / 中美贸易战 这种事情和几个关键决策人的主观倾向关系不大，最后还是要算客观收益）。但当然政治家也没有那么理性，作者在21年预言说俄罗斯不会主动发起战争（因为资源出口主要面向欧洲），今年就被啪啪打脸，靠宏观赚钱真是太难了。
评分##没有什么新意。
评分##"Preferences are optional and subject to constraints, whereas constraints are neither optional nor subject to preferences" 用词比较难读，各种吹自己过去反market consensus & had made the right call……
评分##喜欢这种塔勒布类型文风的投资者的书，躬身入局的投资人说话就是比拿着水晶杯的分析师们更真实和勇敢，没有既要又要的追求全面，而是现实性务实的表达了自己对地缘政治的个人认识和理解维度的出发点——约束决定政策偏好，后面的解释和预测也都与初始设定相互自洽，很有启发的一本书
评分##微博看到兰小欢推荐，看到了友邻的翻译版
评分##喜欢这种塔勒布类型文风的投资者的书，躬身入局的投资人说话就是比拿着水晶杯的分析师们更真实和勇敢，没有既要又要的追求全面，而是现实性务实的表达了自己对地缘政治的个人认识和理解维度的出发点——约束决定政策偏好，后面的解释和预测也都与初始设定相互自洽，很有启发的一本书
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